How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them
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- Create Date：2022-01-09 19:21:12
- Update Date：2025-09-07
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- Author：Barbara F. Walter
- ISBN：B095XSQL5K
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Reviews
Ietrio
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A government bureaucrat who lusts for power， but money will do: so fear， the sky is falling， and televisions as well as government agencies， need to hire him in order to avert this terrible problem。
Raymond
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Review coming soon。
Eric
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TL;DRBarbara F。 Walter draws on her experience and research to deliver exactly on the promise of the book’s title。 How Civil Wars Start draws on historical analysis to point out the warning signs for trouble on the horizon。 Highly recommended。 Disclaimer: The publisher provided a copy of this book in exchange for an honest review。 Any and all opinions that follow are mine alone。 Review: How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F。 WalterPolitical science is a field that it seems like most people TL;DRBarbara F。 Walter draws on her experience and research to deliver exactly on the promise of the book’s title。 How Civil Wars Start draws on historical analysis to point out the warning signs for trouble on the horizon。 Highly recommended。 Disclaimer: The publisher provided a copy of this book in exchange for an honest review。 Any and all opinions that follow are mine alone。 Review: How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F。 WalterPolitical science is a field that it seems like most people are engaged with poorly nowadays。 We， average citizens， need to be involved in our political system， but most of us – including me – don’t engage in the rigorous studies that academic political scientists due。 That doesn’t mean we can’t see the same trends， but our explanations tend to be more instinctual than fact based。 This is why we need the field of political science。 We need people to study the cause and effects of politics， and we need people to study this field with a rigorous methodology。 Pundits， journalists， and opinion show hosts operate with an agenda then， sometimes， search for data to fit their opinions。 Political scientists let the data shape their thoughts。 The difference is important， especially when looking at trends with an eye towards identifying – and stopping – potential conflicts。 Barbara F。 Walter shows us how countries slide towards civil war in her aptly titled book， How Civil Wars Start。 Walter analyzes past civil wars from around the world with an eye towards what caused them， and like all of life， it’s a complex subject。 There’s no one event that triggers a civil war， and there’s no one solution to avoiding a civil war either。 Walter’s book is a terrifying yet excellent look into societal trends that lead to tragedy。 This is a book that politicians and pundits on both sides of the aisle should be studying。Walter opens How Civil Wars Start by describing the lead up to plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer， governor of Michigan in 2020。 This seems like an apt place to start determining whether a civil war is on the horizon for the United States。 Walter goes on to list her background and experiences in studying civil wars。 Her experience is extensive， which I appreciate。 Part of her work has been interviewing survivors of civil wars to understand their experience; so， she peppers the book with conversations。 This helps balance explanations of theory， keeping the non-political science reader engaged。 Chapter one of the book deals with anocracy。 This is the political state of a nation between democracy and autocracy。 Walter’s writing here is both understandable to the layperson like me but also deep enough for those in the field。 I found the anocracy chapter to be interesting and detailed。 The rest of the book relies on this first chapter because a lot of the indicators for conflict happen in this transitional state from autocracy to democracy。Walter spends six chapters explaining the indicators and warning signs for civil war。 Then， she analyzes how close the U。S。 actually is。 I found this chapter fascinating and frightening。 Walter breaks down the various rising threats to the U。S。 in clear prose。 But she is clear that she doesn’t think we， the nation， are on the brink of civil war yet。 A few wrong decisions could lead us there easily， though。 The final chapter is how to avoid it。 This chapter is worth the price of the book alone。 It should be required reading for everyone who goes into government Both Left and RightThroughout How Civil Wars Start Walter identifies a number of right wing， extremist groups that are more likely to start a civil war。 Based on my casual conservative friends wondering about civil war on Facebook， I think her analysis is correct。 However， the Right will simply call her a lib or socialist in order to ignore her findings。 But the important part of her book is that it takes two sides to fight a civil war。 Her analysis of the fall and decline of Yugoslavia shows how one side being taken over by a populist demagogue who engages in racial propaganda doesn’t necessarily mean civil war。 It’s when the other side reacts with similar measures that precede a slide into conflict。 While she correctly identifies extremist right wing groups as pushing the rhetoric， I think she could look more at how the Left has ignored the non-urban areas of the country。 Maybe that’s beyond the scope of this book。 But she does note that extremist left wing groups might join with extremist right wing groups at the start。 Most conservatives will view this book through their victim complex despite the fact that she uses evidence based reasoning。 I can already hear the “what-about’s” that will be used to ignore the warnings in this book。 However， the piece that， to me， correctly indicates it will be right wing extremists instead of left is that those on the right perceive themselves as losing power。 Whereas the moderate left sees their constituents gaining power。 A clear indicator of this is gerrymandering and the removal of competitive elections。 Both the right and the left are guilty of gerrymandering。 This is surely one way to escalate the feeling of helplessness or that our votes don’t matter。 Another is all the voting restriction laws that Republicans around the nation are putting into place。 They know they’re an unpopular minority， and they know that demographic growth isn’t on their side。 So， instead of losing power， they’re doing all they can to cement themselves and to remove public choice。 The supposed party of ‘life’ want to make it illegal to give someone food or drink in the long voting lines that they created。 Social MediaIt should come as no surprise that social media leads to radicalization。 Social media has become a tool of terrorists worldwide， and it’s facilitating homegrown terrorism here in the U。S。 Militia groups are able to recruit but also to collaborate with other groups。 （See January 6th）。 Walter’s discussion of how social media drives this process is fascinating。 She took something that I knew in general and filled in the specifics。 Walter clarifies what drives social media companies， and she details how extremists and states use social media to divide and recruit。Her analysis of how social media companies profit off creating extremists is frightening。 It makes sense， and I wish social media executives cared about protecting democracy。 Instead， they’re profiting off its decline。 Identity PoliticsIn How Civil Wars Start， Walter discusses identity politics。 But I don’t think she focused on how the Left’s identity politics play into this。 Her focus was the so-called sons of the soil groups。 In the U。S。 this would be rural， middle and upper class， white people who are losing power to demographic trends。 So， how does the Lefts increased focus on identity politics affect this group？ I’d love to see a study of this。 Because I think their current focus on their own Right identity politics isn’t a backlash as much as an excuse to say things they normally wouldn’t。Does the Left’s identity politics up the temperature on the Civil War？ Unfortunately， we don’t get that analysis in this book。 I would be very interested in Walter’s thoughts on this topic。 She’s written such a nuanced and throughtfully researched book that I’d trust her to handle the topic delicately。 Civil War in the U。S。？While Walter doesn’t believe the U。S。 is headed towards a Civil War， I’m not so optimistic。 Partially because of lurking on my conservative friends Facebook pages， I do believe the U。S。 is headed towards a Civil War。 At the end of her book， Walter gives strategies for avoiding Civil War。 However， I don’t see the U。S。 implementing these strategies any time soon。 For example， she suggests strengthening the institution of voting by making it easier and by involving more people。 She also suggest reforming campaign finance。 However， both of these suggestions are against the interests of the Republican party。 They are enacting laws to restrict voting as much as they can despite all evidence that the U。S。 has secure elections。 In addition， the Right continues to push disinformation about elections that will only get worse。But it takes two to dance。 And I see the moderate Left adopting some of the same strategies that pushed the Right towards extremists。 For example， the calls to use political power to jail opponents is bad right now。 Hearing all the calls for AG Garland to indict Trump over something is not conducive to making the Right believe the department of Justice is non-partisan。 Process cannot be skipped， and just because ‘we’ are in power doesn’t mean we get to skip process in a just society。 No matter who the ‘we’ is。 The rise of Leftist political grifters on social media decrying that the end is near and that Biden must act is as bad an indicator as Right wing talk radio。 If the Left continues to escalate their political corched earth tactics that mimic the Right， what else can the outcome be？ ConclusionBarbara F。 Walter’s How Civil Wars Start is an important work for political junkies and politicians。 It’s a frank analysis of what puts civil peace in jeopardy， and Walter’s timely analysis is needed to hopefully cool rhetoric on both sides of the aisle。How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F。 Walter is available from Crown Publishing on January 11th， 2022。 。。。more
Stephanie
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（review coming soon）
Jenel
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Dana Milbank's Op Ed in December 2021， and quoted in total below， prompted me to add this book to my list。 "If you know people still in denial about the crisis of American democracy， kindly remove their heads from the sand long enough to receive this message: A startling new finding by one of the nation’s top authorities on foreign civil wars says we are on the cusp of our own。Barbara F。 Walter， a political science professor at the University of California at San Diego， serves on a CIA advisory Dana Milbank's Op Ed in December 2021， and quoted in total below， prompted me to add this book to my list。 "If you know people still in denial about the crisis of American democracy， kindly remove their heads from the sand long enough to receive this message: A startling new finding by one of the nation’s top authorities on foreign civil wars says we are on the cusp of our own。Barbara F。 Walter， a political science professor at the University of California at San Diego， serves on a CIA advisory panel called the Political Instability Task Force that monitors countries around the world and predicts which of them are most at risk of deteriorating into violence。 By law， the task force can’t assess what’s happening within the United States， but Walter， a longtime friend who has spent her career studying conflicts in Syria， Lebanon， Northern Ireland， Sri Lanka， the Philippines， Rwanda， Angola， Nicaragua and elsewhere， applied the predictive techniques herself to this country。Her bottom line: “We are closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe。” She lays out the argument in detail in her must-read book， “How Civil Wars Start，” out in January。 “No one wants to believe that their beloved democracy is in decline， or headed toward war，” she writes。 But， “if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America — the same way you’d look at events in Ukraine or the Ivory Coast or Venezuela — you would go down a checklist， assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely。 And what you would find is that the United States， a democracy founded more than two centuries ago， has entered very dangerous territory。”Indeed， the United States has already gone through what the CIA identifies as the first two phases of insurgency — the “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” phases — and only time will tell whether the final phase， “open insurgency，” began with the sacking of the Capitol by Donald Trump supporters on Jan。 6。Things deteriorated so dramatically under Trump， in fact， that the United States no longer technically qualifies as a democracy。 Citing the Center for Systemic Peace’s “Polity” data set — the one the CIA task force has found to be most helpful in predicting instability and violence — Walter writes that the United States is now an “anocracy，” somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state。U。S。 democracy had received the Polity index’s top score of 10， or close to it， for much of its history。 But in the five years of the Trump era， it tumbled precipitously into the anocracy zone; by the end of his presidency， the U。S。 score had fallen to a 5， making the country a partial democracy for the first time since 1800。 “We are no longer the world’s oldest continuous democracy，” Walter writes。 “That honor is now held by Switzerland， followed by New Zealand， and then Canada。 We are no longer a peer to nations like Canada， Costa Rica， and Japan， which are all rated a +10 on the Polity index。”Dropping five points in five years greatly increases the risk of civil war （six points in three years would qualify as “high risk” of civil war）。 “A partial democracy is three times as likely to experience civil war as a full democracy，” Walter writes。 “A country standing on this threshold — as America is now， at +5 — can easily be pushed toward conflict through a combination of bad governance and increasingly undemocratic measures that further weaken its institutions。”Others have reached similar findings。 The Stockholm-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put the United States on a list of “backsliding democracies” in a report last month。 “The United States， the bastion of global democracy， fell victim to authoritarian tendencies itself，" the report said。 And a new survey by the academic consortium Bright Line Watch found that 17 percent of those who identify strongly as Republicans support the use of violence to restore Trump to power， and 39 percent favor doing everything possible to prevent Democrats from governing effectively。The question now is whether we can pull back from the abyss Trump’s Republicans have led us to。 There is no more important issue; democracy is the foundation of everything else in America。 Democrats， in a nod to this reality， are talking about abandoning President Biden’s Build Back Better agenda in favor of pro-democracy voting rights legislation。 Republicans will fight it tooth and nail。https://www。washingtonpost。com/opinio。。。 。。。more
Courtney
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This was well put together and eloquently worded， but there is a clear bias throughout， and while I am mostly on the side of the favoured bias， it's still worth noting that key points are left out， thus making this very commentary an example of that unobjective villifying if the "other" as a means to further divide。 I still very much recommend this， though， because the author is makes a daunting and discomforting subject accessible without making light， and points that are addressed are an excel This was well put together and eloquently worded， but there is a clear bias throughout， and while I am mostly on the side of the favoured bias， it's still worth noting that key points are left out， thus making this very commentary an example of that unobjective villifying if the "other" as a means to further divide。 I still very much recommend this， though， because the author is makes a daunting and discomforting subject accessible without making light， and points that are addressed are an excellent dissection of a sense of something ominous that many of us are experiencing but can't quite put to words。 。。。more
Angie Boyter
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3+/4- A truly scary discussion of the risk factors that lead to civil wars and how to avoid or correct themAs someone who has been paying attention to the news for the past few years， I welcomed this book by a respected political scientist whose specialty is civil wars， hopefully to allay my unease about my country today （I wish！） or at least to give advice on how to avoid further decline of civility and possible civil war。 The first part of the book explores worldwide what conditions exist in c 3+/4- A truly scary discussion of the risk factors that lead to civil wars and how to avoid or correct themAs someone who has been paying attention to the news for the past few years， I welcomed this book by a respected political scientist whose specialty is civil wars， hopefully to allay my unease about my country today （I wish！） or at least to give advice on how to avoid further decline of civility and possible civil war。 The first part of the book explores worldwide what conditions exist in countries where civil wars arise， with an emphasis on the twentieth century。 This is an excellent exposition， especially the discussion of communist or communist-leaning countries during the Cold War and the differences among them， nuances that were not brought out by the news during that period。 Central to this section of the book is the concept of anocracies， which “are neither full autocracies nor democracies but something in between”。 The author uses the Polity Score， a measure that employs thirty-eight variables to measure how democratic or autocratic a country is at any given time on a 21-point scale from -10 to +10。 Anocracies score between -5 and +5。 It was rather shocking to find that the US does not rank as high as I believe most Americans would expect。 Not surprisingly， anocracies are the most fertile grounds for civil uprising。 A particular factor present when civil wars occur is factionalism， in which political parties break down along ethnic or religious identity rather than political ideology。 As many as 75 percent of the civil wars since the end of the Cold War were brought about by such factions。Walter also points out how civil unrest in the twentieth century differed from the past， especially the role of social media。 After this excellent， albeit disturbing， presentation of the factors present during civil unrest， the second half of the book opens with the chapter “How Close Are We？”。 Pretty close， Walter argues， quite convincingly。 She goes on to make recommendations on how we can prevent it from happening here。 This part of the book I found less satisfactory， partly because if the answers were easy there would likely not be so many civil wars but especially because her political views intrude excessively。 For example， she calls for more gun control， more federal involvement instead of state control over many items， and limits on free speech in social media。 There is little or no suggestion to look at what legitimate concerns might exist that extremists can tap into if the authorities pay no attention to them。 So the book ended on a down note for me， but the first half is definitely worth your attention。 If we wake up to the danger and work together despite our political leanings， religion， or ethnicity， we CAN preserve democracy and， as Walter says “live up to our founding motto---E Pluribus Unum---…[and] become one。”I received an advance review copy of this book from NetGalley and the publisher。 。。。more
J Earl
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How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F Walter is essential reading for anyone who has the uneasy feeling that we might be approaching a civil war but can't put their finger on how or why。 Admittedly some readers， those who support the recent coup attempt， will feel their side has been "unjustly" singled out。 And for some readers in the US their warped sense of exceptionalism will let them dismiss the entire field as not being applicable here。 But for those of us who actually care about trying to make How Civil Wars Start by Barbara F Walter is essential reading for anyone who has the uneasy feeling that we might be approaching a civil war but can't put their finger on how or why。 Admittedly some readers， those who support the recent coup attempt， will feel their side has been "unjustly" singled out。 And for some readers in the US their warped sense of exceptionalism will let them dismiss the entire field as not being applicable here。 But for those of us who actually care about trying to make the democracy better rather than destroy it， the warning signs are made crystal clear and some prescriptive suggestions are offered for avoiding it。I'm not sure I can accurately summarize the many aspects of what can make a society or a government ripe for civil war so I won't try。 I can say that for every example she cites from other civil wars she boils the essence of what happened down so we can see where the similarities are in our own country。 That is， if one is open to trying to stop the civil war and not on the side of overthrowing democracy in the country。I found most of her prescriptive ideas valuable， especially the ones related to the form of government， namely the electoral college （get rid of it， it has outlasted its purpose） and the Senate。 A couple of the social media-based ideas are a little more problematic for me。 I don't disagree with all of it but would want to see a detailed concept before getting on board with too much banning of speech， though I have no problem banning things that are demonstrably false being promoted as true。Highly recommended and a good starting point for both understanding and beginning to take steps to thwart the current attempts to overthrow democracy。Reviewed from a copy made available by the publisher via NetGalley。 。。。more
Ron Frampton
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